After leading the Albiceleste to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final with a game-winning performance against England, Argentina captain Lionel Messi has improved his case for a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or.
According to Naija News, the 39-year-old helped Argentina upset England 2-1 in the semi-final on Wednesday, setting up a thrilling final matchup with Spain and strengthening his chances of winning football’s most coveted individual award.
With Messi’s World Cup performances adding to an already outstanding campaign that has rekindled his prospects of winning the Golden Ball once more, the victory has drastically changed the debate surrounding the Ballon d’Or.
Messi Leads Forecasts
Messi is now ranked by prediction market Polymarket as the front-runner for the 2026 Ballon d’Or after Argentina qualified for the World Cup final.
The platform indicates that the Argentine legend has a 31.7% chance of taking home the prize later this year.
After an incredible season for both club and country, Barcelona prodigy Lamine Yamal is ranked second with a 30.9% chance, while England captain Harry Kane is ranked third with a 13.5% chance.
Ousmane Dembele, a forward for France and the current Ballon d’Or winner, is further behind with a 3.1% probability after France was eliminated from the World Cup championship competition.
The most recent forecasts highlight how the World Cup has changed the competition for the prized award, even if prediction markets represent traders’ expectations rather than official vote.
The World Cup Final May Be Decisive
Despite being the oldest outfield player among the top contenders, Messi continues to deliver important performances, and his performance against England further increased his influence in the tournament.
Messi will have another chance to bolster his Ballon d’Or credentials on the biggest platform of football when Argentina takes on Spain in the final on Sunday.
In addition to allowing Argentina to successfully defend the World Cup title, a victory over the European champions might solidify Messi’s standing as the front-runner for the prize.
Yamal and Kane Are Still in the Running
The race is still alive even if Messi has taken the lead.
Yamal is one of the best contenders for the prize because he has had an amazing season with Barcelona and has been instrumental in Spain’s path to the World Cup final.
Dembele’s chances have diminished after France’s inability to advance to the final, but Kane’s outstanding goal-scoring heroics for England and Bayern Munich have kept him firmly in contention despite the Three Lions’ semi-final defeat.
October Award Ceremony
The 70th Ballon d’Or presentation, which will take place in London for the first time since the award’s founding in 1956, will disclose the 2026 winner on October 26.
UEFA and France Football are working together to organize the event.
