…Amid 3-decade downturn
*The current contribution is less than 9%.
Written by Yinka Kolawole
The federal government has set a target of manufacturing contribution to Nigeria’s economy at between 20 percent and 25 percent by 2030 with the forthcoming launch of the Nigerian Industrial Policy.
This is even as existing data indicate that the industry has a long way to go despite prospects of modest progress in the short term.
Manufacturing’s proportion of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which reached at over 20 per cent in the early 1990s, has progressively decreased over the previous three decades to less than 9 per cent in 2024, indicating deep-seated structural problems in Nigeria’s industrial base.
Average manufacturing contribution to GDP in the first 9 months of 2025 was 8.35%.
According to historical data, the sector’s GDP contribution in 1992 was 20.3%.
However, estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal that the sector’s contribution has generally stalled within the 8–9 per cent area in recent years.
9.20 percent of GDP came from manufacturing in 2018, 9.06 percent in 2019, 8.99 percent in 2020, 8.98 percent in 2021, and 8.92 percent in 2022. In 2023, the sector averaged roughly 9.0 per cent, while preliminary statistics for 2024 place it within a narrow 9–10 per cent range.
At the recent soft launch of the Nigerian Industrial Policy, Minister of State for Industry John Enoh announced the government’s ambitious manufacturing target, which aims to strengthen local production, promote backward integration, improve access to affordable financing, and foster connections between small and large enterprises.
He claims that the government is dedicated to fostering an atmosphere that will enable the industry to grow and compete.
“Our goal is to reposition manufacturing as a major driver of economic growth, job creation, and export expansion, and raise the sector’s contribution to Nigeria’s GDP to between 20% and 25% by 2030,” he stated. It is doable provided we continue to execute reforms that increase electricity supply, access to finance, and industrial infrastructure.
“To reach a 20 to 25 percent contribution to GDP by 2030, the Nigerian Industrial Policy outlines practical steps to improve power supply, access to finance, and industrial infrastructure.”
According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), manufacturing will contribute roughly 10.2% of the country’s real GDP in 2026.
