Written by Peter Egwuatu
Although Nigeria’s economic forecast for 2026 shows promising signs of stability and regained business confidence, experts at PricewaterhouseCooper, PwC, cautioned that the gains are still brittle and extremely vulnerable to shocks brought on by policy, foreign exchange constraints, and volatility in the oil market.
At the PwC and Businessday Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, which took place in Lagos, this was the general agreement. However, caution regarding unresolved structural and geopolitical risks tempers confidence.
At the roundtable with the theme “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026: Global and Nigerian CEOs are now using what he called “two lenses,” according to Sam Ado, Regional Senior Partner, PwC West Africa’s “The Executive Playbook for Growth, Resilience, and Efficiency.” While the second lens, a telescope, looks at long-term prospects fueled by technology, artificial intelligence, and innovation, the first lens, a microscope, concentrates on immediate dangers including geopolitics, cyber risks, and global instability.
Using this methodology, Ado identified significant macroeconomic advancements in Nigeria.
According to him, inflation has decreased to 14.45% from levels that previously categorized Nigeria as having a high rate of inflation.
He pointed out that foreign exchange reserves have increased to $45 billion, providing some protection against external shocks, while the native currency, the Naira, has strengthened to about N1,436/$.
“These results demonstrate disciplined monetary policy and a level of stability many once believed impossible,” he added.
He did, however, issue a warning that stability does not equate to success.
“Stability is not victory,” he said. It is merely a foundation upon which sustainable expansion must be constructed.
Ninety percent of Nigerian CEOs anticipate economic development in 2026, up from sixty-four percent the previous year, according to PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey (Nigeria viewpoint). Approximately 56% of respondents are extremely optimistic about revenue growth, which is much higher than the global average.
“Despite modest revenue gains, debt servicing is projected to consume about 45% of federal revenue, while the fiscal deficit remains high at approximately N24 trillion,” Ado added, emphasizing that dangers still exist, particularly on the fiscal front.
He determined that strategic reinvention, technology, data, and artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and trust, and sustainability and peace will be the top four priorities for Nigerian companies in 2026.
Frank Aigbogun, Publisher of BusinessDay, emphasized the importance of corporate leadership in promoting long-term success in the larger context of development. He emphasized the importance of improving tax compliance and constructive citizen engagement, pointing out that Nigeria can only finance a small portion of the infrastructure needed for growth.
Olusegun Zaccheaus, Partner, Chief Economist and Strategy Head, West African Market at PwC, cautioned that security issues continue to be a significant negative risk and are unlikely to be resolved in 2026, particularly given that the year comes before national elections. Nigeria still faces transnational challenges that go beyond domestic control, he said.
Zaccheaus expressed cautious optimism over monetary policy, stating that relative stability is anticipated to persist until 2026.
Even while inflation is declining, authorities are still worried about the liquidity pressures that come with election cycles, so interest rates are unlikely to drop significantly.
He warned that although investment optimism is improving, consumer recovery would behind overall economic development since stability takes time to provide jobs and household income. Additionally, sectoral performance will continue to be uneven, with manufacturing and import-dependent sectors projected to lag behind services and oil and gas, he said.
Zaccheaus also cautioned that, especially in a more fragmented global economy, Nigeria’s outlook is still susceptible to shocks to oil output, FX disruptions, and international trade tensions. According to him, any significant change in oil production or pricing could jeopardize FX availability and budgetary assumptions.
Kenneth Erikume, PwC Partner and Tax Reporting & Strategy Leader, stated that Nigeria’s long-standing problem of spending exceeding revenue is still unaddressed from a fiscal sustainability and tax standpoint. He pointed out that in 2025, delays in the delivery of capital expenditures accelerated projects and reduced economic momentum.
Erikume stated that borrowing would continue in 2026 despite the predicted N152 trillion federal debt. However, he emphasized that revenue mobilization through efficient tax administration, data, and technology is now crucial.
