By Business Editor Emeka Anaeto
As Nigeria’s economic reforms move into their third year, observers have mostly maintained their optimism that long-term policy changes will lead to stability across important macroeconomic indices.
This was the main focus of the 2026 EnterpriseNGR macroeconomic projection, which was unveiled in Lagos yesterday.
“Economic growth is expected to strengthen in 2026 as reform momentum, infrastructure spending, and services-sector expansion support broader economic activities,” stated Omotayo Muritala, Head of Research at EnterpriseNGR.
According to him, EnterpriseNGR projects that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth would be approximately 4.49% in 2026, representing a wide-ranging increase across services, agriculture, trade, and telecommunications.
“The oil sector is also expected to make modest gains with improved security and operational stability,” he continued.
“This presupposes that recent reforms in infrastructure investment, foreign exchange liberalization, and fiscal management will continue.”
“Improved foreign exchange market efficiency that supports exchange rate stability; Fiscal expansion under the 2025-2027 MTEF will boost aggregate demand; Crude oil production is expected to remain stable around 1.50 mbpd; Private sector investments, especially in refining, expected to strengthen output; and Services sector growth (ICT, trade, transport) is expected to remain resilient,” he explained, outlining the basis for the base case.
“Crude oil production stabilizes above 1.7 to 1.8 mbpd with reduced theft and downtime; Stronger foreign exchange inflows from oil, remittances, and portfolio capital to ease liquidity constraints; Services led growth accelerates, particularly in finance, ICT, trade, and logistics; Manufacturing benefits from improved energy availability and import input access; and Fiscal reforms deepen, with better revenue mobilization and capital expenditure execution,” he said.
But according to Muritala, the EnterpriseNGR also anticipates potential drawbacks, such as “oil production underperforms due to security issues or operational disruptions; global growth slows, dampening commodity demand and capital flows; tight global policy rates persist, constraining investment and foreign exchange inflows; inflation remains elevated, suppressing household consumption; and reform fatigue or policy reversals weaken private sector confidence.”
As signs of stabilization, he emphasized lowering inflation, increasing foreign exchange liquidity, and fortifying external buffers.
Nigeria is moving from a moment of adjustment to one of stabilization and restored confidence, according to Obi Ibekwe, Chief Executive Officer of EnterpriseNGR, who spoke during the event.
“The groundwork for macroeconomic stability has been established. Converting reform gains into sustained development, investment, and better welfare is now the top task, she stated.
