Written by Tunde Oso
Three major bank mergers are anticipated within the first quarter of the new year, according to DataPro Limited, the top credit rating firm, as banks rush to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) March 31 recapitalization deadline.
“Nigeria’s banking sector is approaching a critical inflexion point, with regulatory tightening, capital pressure, and technological disruption combining to reshape the industry,” stated DataPro in its research titled “Banking Sector Prospects in Nigeria.”
According to Idris Shittu, DataPro’s Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) analyst, these dynamics represent a “triple threat” that necessitates operational resilience and strategic agility from banks nationwide.
According to Shittu’s study, “by the end of 2025, major banks like Access, Zenith, GTCO, UBA, FBN, and Stanbic IBTC have successfully met the N500 billion minimum capital threshold required by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).”
The CBN raised the minimum capital requirement for commercial banks in March 2024, with a deadline of March 2026. According to reports, over 20 institutions have so far cooperated with the demand.
Shittu went on, “As institutions rush to meet the March 31 recapitalization deadline, Tier-2 Banks are under increasing pressure to comply, with three major mergers expected by early 2026.”
“An active M&A environment has been sparked by this regulatory push, but it carries significant risks.”
“Post-merger integration challenges, such as IT system harmonization, cultural alignment, and the migration of non-performing loans (NPLs), could strain newly merged entities, particularly smaller banks,” the paper stated.
Furthermore, the impending deadline has sparked “war room” talks on deal execution and risk avoidance throughout the business.
According to the rating agency, the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for commercial banks is 45%, indicating that the banking industry is still dealing with serious liquidity issues.
According to the research, the policy effectively sterilizes about half of naira deposits, which restricts banks’ ability to provide loans and forces them to put fee-based revenue ahead of conventional credit generation.
The company stated that as fintech companies like Moniepoint and OPay continue to aggressively gain market share, especially among SMEs and retail clients, technological disruption continues to be a significant pressure point.
According to DataPro, “2026 is poised to become the year Nigerian banks move beyond traditional banking to compete as lifestyle “super-apps.”
“These super-apps seek to improve customer engagement and retention by directly integrating services like food delivery, flight reservations, and other everyday conveniences into banking platforms.”
However, the company cautioned that lengthy IT procurement procedures and outdated core systems could make it more difficult for traditional banks to compete, raising the possibility that customers would switch to more flexible fintech platforms.
According to Data Pro, banks may seek fintech acquisitions or create independent digital subsidiaries that can function more quickly and flexibly in order to remain competitive.
The possible dangers of IT system malfunctions and cultural conflicts are highlighted by previous consolidation initiatives, such as those in 2005.
